4/28 Off day!

You know it's an off day when the whole team shows up at Passage the night before..rumor has it Coco cordero was breaking it down.

Just wanted to let everyone know that the owner of www.baseballreflections.com has contacted me and wants me to write a monthly review for the Reds on his website, I'll give you all the link once it's ready to be published!

Thanks for the support...looking forward to this big weekend series vs the hot Marlins.

4/27 Reds @ Brewers

The rubber match of this three game series will be played at 1:10pm today, and that was just made aware to me by my mom 5 minutes ago. So, even though I promised a long post today, that probably won't happen because I forgot to look at the schedule. We have Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 4.88) vs Sam LeCure (0-1, 4.15) for today's game. At first glance it seems like we have no shot in this game, but once you finish reading this post you should have a little more confidence!

We'll start with Gallardo today, who in his last start went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs on 8 hits vs the Astros. Surprisingly, Gallardo doesn't have a very good career vs the Reds..here are his numbers vs the current Reds. Some notables:

• Phillips, Gomes, Bruce and Stubbs all have a home run vs Gallardo.
• The only Reds' starters who bat below .300 vs Gallardo are Hanigan and Gomes.
• The team is 37-111 vs Gallardo, which is a .333 average.
• Gallardo has very interesting splits, because RHB only bat .233 vs him, while LHB bat .252, but the RHB have much more power. RHB have 31 homers to the lefty's 16, while having nearly the same amount of career hits vs him.
• LHB draw many more walks than RHB (127 to 97, over less AB)
• Gallardo has a history of bad 4th innings, where he has given up 14 home runs, which double the next highest inning.
• He's also bad in 1st and 6th innings, with a 4.66 and 5.37 ERA respectively. Every other inning is near 3.0.
• The Reds have the most career hr vs Gallardo with 6 and a career 5.26 ERA (2-3).
• 9-14 during day games (29-11 night), pretty big difference there.
• 22-13 with a 3.33 ERA at Miller Park.

Pick to Click: Stubbs

Now, onto LeCure..here are his stats vs the Brewers. His last start (4/19) he went 5.1 innings and gave up 5 runs on 9 hits (4 home runs) vs the D'Backs. Some other tidbits:

• Casey McGehee and Corey Hart each have one hit, everyone else (not including Randy Wolf) is 0-14 vs LeCure.
• Team batting average of .167, 3-18.
• Some more good news is LeCure does very good vs Righties, and as I've mentioned in the previous 2 posts the Brewers have a RHB saturated lineup normally - with 7 RHB.
• RHB bat .245 compared to LHB .274.
• K/BB ratio is much better vs RHB as well with a 2.75 compared to 1.24 vs LHB.
• 0-1 with a 3.45 ERA during day games.
• Interesting stat here, even though it doesn't relate to the game. LeCure's ERA with Hanigan is 3.29, and with Hernandez it is 5.28.

Pick to Click: Corey Hart

Feel better about the game? Obviously it's not a given, especially with LeCure's small sample size vs the Brewers, but I feel much better about this game after looking into it. It'd be huge to come back to Cincy with a win, especially considering the Marlins are 15-7 and it doesn't look like they will ever lose again...and they'll be in their natural habitat with all this rain. One more note....HALA MADRID! If you're not a soccer fan, you won't get it...no big deal. Go Reds!

@EricLilly7

4/26 Reds @ Brewers

Great to see the bats come alive last night, and I'm very surprised Dusty switched lineups so quick. Usually it takes him a while to adjust with things like that, I'm very impressed. I was actually going to do a little write - up on how I thought the lineup should be something like Sappelt/Heisey in LF while moving BP to 2 or 4, and Stubbs to 2 or 4. Sappelt, Stubbs, Votto, Phillips, Bruce is how I'd like to see it, but I like the changes he made. Today I was going to try to rush a post before my exam at 6pm, but when I found out Mike Leake has no stats vs the Brewers and Marco Estrada had no stats vs the Reds in starts, I decided to just not make a post for today.

Mike Leake is 3-0 with a 4.94 ERA, but had a great start last time out.

-Also a note, RHB are batting .170 this year vs Leake with more K's (12) than hits (8), this should be good news as the Brewers only have 2 LHB starters (Kotsay, Fielder) as stated in yesterday's blog post.

Marco Estrada has 2 starts and 2 relief appearances and is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA, with his last start coming 9 days ago vs the Nationals where he went 6 innings and gave up 1 run on 5 hits. His out pitch, and his best pitch, is the curveball. He also has a fastball, cutter, and change.

Off topic:

-Some quotes from after the Cards' series, Pujols' praise for Volquez, and a cool new nickname for Travis Wood.

-Buster Olney on Brandon Phillips in the 4 spot and his tweeting.

Sorry, about the short post, I'll be back at it tomorrow for LeCure who has a GREAT history vs the Brewers.

4/25 Reds @ Brewers

Tough way to end that series last night, it seems like the Reds read my blog and swung at early pitches vs Westbrook, but all we could get was walks and pop-ups. I'm just going off what I heard, I was at my Grandparent's house for Easter and they don't have cable! This'll be a quick post because I have to leave for class in 20 minutes, I apologize. Tonight we have Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 4.24) vs Chris Narveson (1-0, 2.19) at Miller Park.

We'll start with the lefty Narveson, who through 4 starts only has one decision, that being a win vs the Chicago Cubs. His last start he went 6 IP vs the Phillies and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits. Here are the Reds stats vs Narveson. Now, some tidbits:

• Joey Votto is the only Reds' player to have a home run, and the only with over 2 hits. He is 4-7 lifetime vs Narveson.
• Gomes is 0-6 with 4K vs the lefty Narveson.
• Reds are 9-45 lifetime vs Narveson.
• Over the past three years LHB are batting .245 vs Narveson, but he's doing even better this year at a .158 clip.
• LHB have 3 home runs vs Narveson over the past 3 years, 25 for RHB. (One of those LHB homers was Votto)
• RHB have done much better than LHB over the same time frame, at a .267 clip.
• ERA at GABP is 1.42.

Pick to Click: Drew Stubbs

Now, onto Arroyo. Arroyo's last start was a 6.1IP start vs the D'backs where he gave up 3 runs on 5 hits. We have a much bigger sample size here of Arroyo vs the Brewers. Notables:

• 6 Brewers have 10 or more appearances vs Arroyo, Of those 6, 2 have above a .300 average. Those 2 guys are Mark Kotsay and Craig Counsell (Counsell will most likely not start, Kotsay starts in RF).
• McGehee is 2-10, Fielder is 9-38, Braun is 8-32, and Weeks is 5-29 with an astounding 12 strikeouts....so maybe Counsell will start at 2B over Weeks?
• LHB bat .292 against Arroyo the past 3 years, and the Brewers only have 2 LHB starting in Fielder and Kotsay.
• Great news here is Arroyo, in the past 3 years, has had 4 starts at Miller Park and is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA.

Pick to Click: Prince Fielder

Sounds like we have a pretty good shot to win, but I thought we were going to win last night for sure. One other thing to note is Yuniesky Betancourt is the worst defensive SS in the Majors, and he is starting for the Brewers. No off-topic tonight, because I'm going to be late for class. Sorry and GO REDS!

PS. Don't judge me if there are typos!

4/24 Reds @ Cardinals - Easter Sunday!

Huge win for the Reds yesterday. Thank you all for continuing to visit my blog, we've just reached 1,000 views over 18 posts which is much higher than I thought I'd ever get! Now onto last night's game...my Twitter timeline was full of Reds' fans who had given up hope in the 4th inning down 2-0, just because the team has played bad lately. They forgot that this team has the will to win, and that it's baseball. People are so quick to write a team off that was in the playoffs last year, and has the talent to win the NL Central. Stop treating this team like the Bengals, who deserve to be doubted when they are down. Anyways, we've got a huge game tonight on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. We know that Jake Westbrook will start for the Cardinals, but the Reds starter is still up for grabs. Sam LeCure is the listed starter, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Volquez start and then push LeCure back a day because Volquez missed his start on Friday. For Volquez info vs Cardinals, check the post on 4/22/2011.

Sam LeCure has one career start vs the Cardinals, here is the game log. To see the stats of current Cardinals vs LeCure, check out this link. Now, a little analysis:

• LeCure only has given up 2 hits versus current Cardinals, one to Molina and one to Pujols.
• It's worth noting that LeCure had 4 walks in that game in 5.1 innings, but that is very un-LeCure like. He has 4 walks all year, so I doubt we see that again unless he can't handle the ESPN and Sunday Night pressure at Busch Stadium.
• The Cards have a lot of RHB, and LeCure holds RHB to .245 in his career, compared to .274 vs LHB.
• His K/BB ratio is 2.75 vs RHB, and 1.24 vs LHB, that's a huge difference and shows his confidence vs RHB. He has more walks vs LHB (17 to 12) while pitching to RHB much more often (170 to 114 Plate Appearances).

Pick to Click: Lance Berkman

Now, onto Jake Westbrook who is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA. His last start he went 3 innings and gave up 7 runs on 7 hits vs the Washington Nationals. Here are his stats vs the Reds. Onto some of the other stuff:

• Westbrook has thrown more walks than strikeouts this year. He's walked 13 while only striking out 9 in 18.1 innings. He's also given up 30 hits in 18.1 innings.
• Gomes and Rolen have homers vs Westbrook, Rolen will most likely not start again tonight.
• The team as a whole has batted 16-53 (.302), and the only batter to really struggle vs him is Bruce at a 0-3 clip.
• Splits on avg are .276/.277, so there is no advantage there for RHB or LHB. Homers, hits, doubles, etc are all nearly the exact same as well.
• One difference in the splits is K/BB ratio, where vs RHB he has a huge advantage 2.88 to 1.21 for LHB.
• He has a 4.79 ERA at Busch Stadium, but has only given up 2 home runs there in 47 IP.
• One other thing to watch out on is pay extra attention on 0-1 and 1-0 pitch counts, as Westbrook gives up most of his hits in these pitch counts. I thought it was an interesting stat so I looked up a few other pitchers to see if there was a trend, and the guys I looked up gave up most of their hits on 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 counts. He's given up 342 hits in those counts, which is 25% of the hits he's given up in his career. Pretty weird statistic considering this stat tracks every count from 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2. All of those possibilities, but 25% of his hits are from 0-1, 1-0..so I'm going to try to pay extra attention to that tonight and see what happens.
• Also worth noting that he gives up a lot of hits on the first pitch, 42% of hits given up occur in the 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 count.

Pick to Click: Jay Bruce

I think the Reds finally take a series at Busch Stadium tonight, as Jake Westbrook has been pitching awful lately and I think LeCure or Volquez will both pitch good enough for the Reds to win. It would be a huge series win heading into Milwaukee, so let's see if we can do it!

No off topic today, but please vote in the poll, because I'm considering creating a website not on blogspot. I just want to know if you guys would consistently visit a website that had more permanent content like a profile for each Reds' player with their tendencies, as well as the current blog and maybe some other things. If you have any comments on it feel free to comment on it, email me at edlilly08@gmail.com, or hit me up on Twitter @EricLilly7.

4/23 Reds @ Cardinals

First of all, I'd like to thank mother nature for messing with my blog post yesterday and having Maloney start instead of Volquez. After last night's loss the Reds optioned Maloney to AAA and brought up Carlos Fisher just to give the bullpen another healthy arm. The Reds and Cards meet up at Busch Stadium for the second game of this three game series with Travis Wood (1-2, 5.73) facing off vs Chris Carpenter (0-2, 4.13).

Carpenter's last start was a 7 inning, 5 hit beauty vs. the Dodgers. It was the first time this year that he hasn't given up a run in a start. Let's check out his stats vs the Reds here, and as expected there is a pretty strong sample size presented.

• Out of the 10 players with 10+ AB vs Carpenter, only one is batting over .300, Joey Votto. Votto is 7-20 (.350) with a few walks and a home run. The only other player with a home run is Scott Rolen, but I'm pretty sure he will not play today.
• The team combined is 41-203 for a .202 average.
• 5 of the Reds expected starters bat below .200 vs Carpenter in their careers: Hanigan, Phillips, Janish, Gomes, and Bruce.
• Carpenter's splits are fairly even over the past three years as LHB bat .237 compared to .238 for RHB.
• Not much else you need to know about Carpenter other than this and he has a great Fastball and Curveball that he will throw 77% of the time, the other 23% of the time is his Slider and Changeup.
• In the last 3 years, Carpenter has 63.1 IP vs the Reds, with a 1.56 ERA.
• In 32 career starts at the new Busch Stadium he has an exceptional 2.63 ERA.

Pick to Click: Jay Bruce

Wood had a tough start last time out vs the Pirates where he went 3.1 innings and gave up 6 runs on 8 hits. Travis Wood has only faced 5 Cardinals over career, and here are his results vs them. Some tidbits:

• In Wood's only start at Busch Stadium he went 7 innings and gave up no runs on 5 hits. The reason the sample size is only 5 players is because some of those players aren't on the Cardinals anymore.
• Rasmus and Descalso will be the only LHB for Wood to pick apart, as LHB bat .136 vs Wood.
• RHB bat .240 vs Wood, and he'll get a heavy dose of power hitting RHB with Berkman (switch, but will bat R vs Wood), Pujols and Holliday.

Pick to Click: Reds Killer Berkman

This wouldn't seem like a terrible matchup, but Wood hasn't pitched well lately. Meanwhile, Carpenter seems to be turning it up just in time to face the Reds. Hopefully we win, and can say "I wonder how Chris Carpenter will explain this to his son", but history tells us the Reds will probably lose today's game. The Reds best chance of winning a game this series is tomorrow vs Jake Westbrook who will face LeCure or Volquez, that has yet to be announced.

Off topic:

-Votto is batting under .400 for the first time this year after last night's effort.

-I am now famous, as my tweet was published on www.cincinnati.com

-It has now been 6 straight games for the Reds giving up a run in the 1st inning.

-Check out this crazy picture of a truck hanging on the side of a parking garage in StL.

-Check out a link @DFArlington found of the KKK formally asking for a KKK day at the Reds ballpark in 1924. Absolutely crazy how much things have changed in 87 years.

Follow me on Twitter @EricLilly

4/22 Reds @ Cardinals Emergency Post!

Miguel Batista was just named StL's new starter because of the expected rain, so I'm going to analyze him really quick. Also, a shoutout to mother nature for wasting an hour or so of my time analyzing Kyle McClellan last night...although he may come in for relief after a rain delay?

Miguel Batista is a reliever for the Cards, but is just making this spot start for the Cards because of the rain. Here are his stats vs the Reds.

• Edgar Renteria is 9-34 (.265), but has 10 rbi.
• Cairo starting over Rolen (hurt) may be a blessing in disguise, as he is 4-8 vs Batista compared to Rolen's 4-25.
• Gomes is 5-10, Stubbs is 2-2, and BP is 4-5.
• In the past 3 years LHB have batted .292, while RHB have batted .259. Also worth noting LHB have .416 OBP compared to a .310 for RHB...aka he is uncomfortable facing LHB as well.

Go Reds! Hopefully everyone stays safe from the Tornado that is nearly to St L.