Ludwick Acquisition Needs To Happen

Many Reds' fans may think our offense is fine because of the 378 runs scored, which is third in all of MLB, but this offense could be improved without using critical trade pieces in the minors. My target has been Ryan Ludwick, and has been for a while - I've been tweeting about him for at least a month saying he would fill the inconsistent gap in LF and be an imposing hitter in the 2 hole/4hole in front of or behind Votto.

One rip on Ludwick is that he is doing awful this year with his .254 AVG and his lowest SLG since '04, but I can almost guarantee this decline is due to Petco Park and the Padres weak lineup. Just take a look at his 2011 splits where Ludwick bats .231 with only a .367 SLG% at Petco Park, but away from Petco his average is all the way up to .280 and a .050 point increase in his SLG to .417.

Ludwick has spent much of his career at SD being sandwiched in between guys like Cameron Maybin and Chase Headley, and as a result of that he's only seen 45% of pitches thrown to him in the strike zone. When Ludwick was in STL sandwiched in-between star hitters like Pujols, Holliday and co. he saw over 50% strikes over the 3.5 yrs he was there. In '08, his best year, he saw over 52% of pitches in the strike zone, which can be attributed to the strengths around him - and Ludwick capitalized on those pitches. Check out Ludwick's stats in the 2 hole and the 4 hole which is where he alternated in the lineup with the Cardinals:

• 2 hole: 421 Plate Appearances w/ .314 AVG, .390 OBP, .564 SLG, 17hr
• 4 hole: 970 Plate Appearances w/ .260 AVG, .330 OBP, .466 SLG, 44hr

I think he'd be a great addition to the Reds' lineup in the 2 hole, or anywhere else really - just have to make sure he's in the top 5 of the lineup in between bruce/votto/rolen/phillips/stubbs and not down with catchers/shortstops.

Pitchers are no longer forced to pitch to Ludwick because there aren't any threats around him in the lineup, which can be shown through some stats that I've been looking at from FanGraphs. Ludwick's O- Contact % (Contact made with pitches outside of the zone) is at a career high of 66%, which is great (great, but also shows he is reaching for too many pitches - O-zone % being high also leads to a lot of outs because of bad contact w/ ball), but his Z-Contact % (Contact made with pitches inside the zone) is at 80.3%, which is the same % he had in his rookie year with the Rangers and his lowest since '05. His O-Swing % (Swinging % of pitches that are outside of the zone) is at a career high of 30.8 %, which really shows he isn't getting the pitches inside the zone that he is used to seeing and is being forced to chase bad pitches.

A change of scenery would be huge for Ludwick, and any competing team with a decently sized ballpark will get a steal if they can acquire him from the Padres where his team and ballpark are both detriments to the type of player he is. He could be a huge guy to add to the middle of a lineup and because of his current production he could be acquired cheaply. I have no idea what it'd take to get Ludwick and his 6.7m contract (FA after year), but I'd imagine it wouldn't take as much as a SS that would make a similar impact.

I'm starting to get a little redundant now, so I want to hear what you guys think about a move like this! IMO it's a big enough upgrade to make the move to have a day in and day out starter in LF and a solid addition to the middle of the lineup who will improve with small ballpark, chance to win, and better players around him. Let me know what you think in the comments section or @EricLilly7

FanGraphs link

5/19 Pirates @ Reds

Hey all! Sorry about the long absence, but I've been busy working at the Florence Freedom, applying for an incredible Under Armour internship (like them on Facebook it may help me out!), writing this article, school, and I could go on and on....well back to the Reds! The Under Armour internship is an incredible opportunity, but they only select 2 applicants (from the original 1,200+ applicants) as the actual interns. The first cut was made a few days ago down to 100 people remaining, and it is an honor to be in that 100. I'll keep you guys updated on that, but now onto the game! The Pirates and the Reds face off today at 12:35 pm for the finale of a 7 game homestand for the Reds, then they will head up north to face MLB's "best", the Cleveland Indians. So far on this homestand the Reds are 5-1, and if they win this game the tickets for the next Cubs series in the field box level would go all the way down to $10 from $34 because of the $4 off per win this homestand. We have Johnny Cueto (2-0, 0.00) facing off vs James McDonald (2-3, 6.20) in this finale at Great American Ball Park.

We'll start with Johnny Cueto vs the Pirates, who has a pretty successful career vs them.

• Only two players that have solid success vs Cueto are McCutchen (.273 w. 3 HR in 22 AB) and Ronny Cedeno who is 5-16 (.313) with a home run.
• Doumit also has a home run, but has a .235 Avg.
• The team batting average vs Cueto is .218.
• Cueto is 8-11 with a 3.20 ERA in day games, which is much better than his 4.62 in night games.
• 17-12 at GABP with a 4.17 ERA.
• Pirates have a lefty heavy lineup, and Cueto has performed much better vs LHB in his career with a .244 AVG vs. .271 for RHB.

Pick to Click: Ronny Cedeno

Now, onto James McDonald vs the Reds. In his last start on May 13th, he gave up 5 runs on 6 hits in 4 IP. In his last start vs the Reds, on April 16th, he gave up 6 earned runs (7 total) on 9 hits in 4.1IP

• Ramon Hernandez (3-3) and Jonny Gomes (1-3) both have home runs vs McDonald.
• Very small sample size, but only Reds with more than one hit vs him are Votto (2-5), Hernandez (3-3), and Phillips (2-3).
• He is AWFUL on the road with a 5-10 record and a 5.65 ERA, while at home he is 6-4 with a 3.17 ERA.
• No signs of differences in his day/night splits, but only has 4 day starts.
• 14 of the 17 home runs he's given up in his career are vs RHB.
• RHB bat .279, while LHB bat .235.
• As mentioned in the previous post back in April with James McDonald, he has a very strong curveball and does not give up many home runs.

Pick to Click: Ramon Hernandez

Looks like a win for the Redlegs today, and it would be a big one to go into inter-league play up on the Cardinals. The only way to guarantee the .5 game lead is to win again tomorrow. Sorry again for the lack of posts, I will do them as I have time, but I expect to be busy - so look for Twitter (@EricLilly7) and Facebook updates!

5/6 Reds @ Cubs

Behind some solid starting pitching, the Reds have finally gotten a win streak and it was the first time since April 12th vs the Padres where the Reds won 2 games in a row. Today will also be the third straight day game for the Reds, who will play 5 day games in a row - this has to be some kind of record in the modern era for the Reds? I can't remember anything like that, but I'm only 20. Matt Garza (1-3, 3.96) will be facing off vs Edinson Volquez (2-1, 5.67) at 2:20pm today from Wrigley Field.

We'll start with Garza, who very few Reds have experience vs. because he's from the AL Tampa Bay Rays. His last start was very impressive where he went 8 innings and gave up 3 runs on 6 hits with 10K's in a win vs the D'Backs. Here are his stats vs the 4 Reds who have faced him.

• Garza has interesting splits, because LHB only bat .239 while RHB are at .268.
• To make it even more confusing, because of his tendency to walk LHB, they have a higher OBP than RHB. He has a 2.90 K/BB ratio vs RHB, and only a 2.00 vs LHB which leads to a .321 OBP for LHB and a .317 vs RHB. Very weird to see such an average discrepancy being cancelled out by walks.
• An interesting note on Garza: he has given up 0 home runs this year, and is a fly ball pitcher...last year he gave up 28 home runs.
• His highest inning ERA is 5.37 in the 3rd inning, so he may have trouble with batters adjusting.
• 12-15 with a 3.61 ERA - he's better in day games.
• 0-1 with a 1.89 ERA at Wrigley.

Pick to Click: Drew Stubbs

Now, onto Volquez..who went 5 innings last time out vs the Marlins only giving up 1 run on 2 hits. I'd love for him to go 6-7 IP, but after his early struggles I'll take the 5 innings of 1 run at this point. Here are his stats vs the Cubs.

• .300 team average, 12-40, only one homer which belongs to Jeff Baker.
• If you've read this blog before, you know Volquez is just as good vs righties as he is vs lefties.
• May is Volquez's month, where he is a lifetime 2.44 ERA with a 4-2 record.
• 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA vs Cubs lifetime.
• 10-4 during day games in his career with a 4.54 ERA.
• 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA at Wrigley Field

Pick to Click: Jeff Baker (5 career hrs vs Reds)

Looks to be a fairly even matchup, but the Reds are riding some momentum so let's get another quality start and get Volquez some runs because the wind is blowing out to right field!

Off-topic:

-Just one cool thing I found here, how cool is this beat writer for the Royals?

@EricLilly7

5/3 Astros @ Reds

Hopefully it doesn't rain tonight and we can get this game in, or else the schedule will really get messed up. Tonight we have the lefty JA Happ (1-4, 6.35) vs Mike Leake (3-0, 4.40) at 7:10.

In his last start, Happ went 5 innings and gave up 2 runs on 5 hits vs the Cardinals. Here are Happ's #s vs the Reds. Some notables:

• Brandon Phillips is 4-5 with 2 hrs.
• Heisey, Hermida and Phillips each have 3 rbi.
• Hermida is 3-7 and Votto is 2-5.
• Happ has nearly the exact same K/BB rate vs LHB and RHB, but as you're about to see there are differences in the other statistics.
• RHB bat .253 vs Happ while LHB bat .215.
• 33 of his 39 home runs given up in his career have been given up vs RHB.
• 0-1 with a 15.75 ERA @GABP.

Pick to Click: Brandon Phillips

In Leake's last start he went 7 innings and gave up 2 runs on 7 hits vs the Brewers. His ERA went from 4.94 to 4.40. Here are his career #s vs the Astros. Some other tidbits on Leake:

• Only Bourne and Pence have multiple hits vs Leake.
• Chris Johnson and Hunter Pence have home runs.
• 11-55 as a team, for a .200 avg.
• LHB are just a little better than RHB vs Leake (.289 to. 277), and the Astros are only starting 2 LHB - Bourn and Wallace.
• Leake is 8-2 at GABP.
• 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA vs the Astros in his career.

Pick to Click: Brett Wallace

Sorry it was a pretty short write-up, but I have to get to class. GO REDS! Hopefully the rain goes away, because the Reds have a pretty good career vs Happ, especially Phillips.

@EricLilly7

5/1 Marlins @ Reds

May is FINALLY here, hopefully all this rain stops. Last night was a huge win for the Reds to stay above .500, which despite popular belief, isn't too bad considering all the injuries. Today is the rubber match of the 3 game series at 4:10pm with Bronson Arroyo (3-2, 3.64) facing off vs Ricky Nolasco (2-0, 3.24). The reason for the weird 4:10 start time is because of the Flying Pig Marathon in Cincinnati.

We'll start with Arroyo vs the Marlins. Here are his stats vs them, and now for some analysis:

• Omar Infante has 4 doubles out of his 5 hits vs Arroyo, but is only batting .263.
• In 54 at bats, none of the Marlins have home runs.
• LHB do much better vs Arroyo (.285 compared to .240 for RHB), and the Marlins lineup is a little different today and we'll see more LHB. Dobbs is at 3b, Coghlan at CF, Bonafacio is in LF. One thing to note is Bonafacio is starting in place of a LHB LF (Cousins) and is a switch hitter who is actually better as a RHB.
• Arroyo is 36-28 with a 3.50 ERA at GABP in his career.

Pick to Click: Hanley Ramirez

Now, onto Ricky Nolasco vs the Reds. Some notables:

• Edgar Renteria is 0-18 vs him, but is not starting, Janish is 0-3.
• Votto, Stubbs and Hanigan have home runs vs him.
• Team is 12-67 with a .179 batting average.
• Taking out the guys who will not start vs Nolasco the team is 11-43 which is a .255 batting average and is much more respectable.
• LHB bat .270, while RHB bat .256.
• He's also much more comfortable vs RHB, with a 5.86 K/BB ratio (compared to 2.75) which is a ridiculous rate. Note: He gets a solid amount of K's, but he is very well known for his control and has only 4 walks in 33.1 IP this year.
• May is his worse month by far, where hitters have a .304 average and he has a 5.59 ERA. If you took out May (10-11 record), Nolasco would have a .500 or better record in every month.
• He's given up 26 home runs in the first pitch of a count, next highest is 18 in the 1-0 count. Home runs account for 21% of the total hits he's given up in the first pitch of a count.
• He doesn't appear to be comfortable pitching in any situation, unless there are 2 strikes on the hitter. 0-2, 2-2, and 1-2 are the only counts where batters are hitting below .300 vs him, meanwhile every other count is easily over .300 some even over .400. This will be a fun trend to watch during the game.
• He's 1-0 with a 4.34 era at GABP in 4 career starts

My Pick to Click: Chris Valaika

Can't really tell who will win this one, but I can't wait to watch this game to follow Nolasco's trends. This would be a huge win for the Reds and it'd be nice to get a little win streak here at home. Follow me on Twitter @EricLilly7 , I may have some analysis on the trend that I mentioned above.

4/30 Marlins @ Reds

Sadly, I have to skip today's post as well, I just got off work and I don't have time. I've been very busy with work, school, writing the monthly review and some other stuff - I hope to get in a rhythm here again very shortly.

Here are Josh Johnson's stats vs the Reds though.

Go Reds!

4/29 Marlins @ Reds

There will be no post today, I have to sleep early tonight because I have scheduling early in the AM then I work till 5 then I'm heading out to GABP!! GO REDS!

4/28 Off day!

You know it's an off day when the whole team shows up at Passage the night before..rumor has it Coco cordero was breaking it down.

Just wanted to let everyone know that the owner of www.baseballreflections.com has contacted me and wants me to write a monthly review for the Reds on his website, I'll give you all the link once it's ready to be published!

Thanks for the support...looking forward to this big weekend series vs the hot Marlins.

4/27 Reds @ Brewers

The rubber match of this three game series will be played at 1:10pm today, and that was just made aware to me by my mom 5 minutes ago. So, even though I promised a long post today, that probably won't happen because I forgot to look at the schedule. We have Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 4.88) vs Sam LeCure (0-1, 4.15) for today's game. At first glance it seems like we have no shot in this game, but once you finish reading this post you should have a little more confidence!

We'll start with Gallardo today, who in his last start went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs on 8 hits vs the Astros. Surprisingly, Gallardo doesn't have a very good career vs the Reds..here are his numbers vs the current Reds. Some notables:

• Phillips, Gomes, Bruce and Stubbs all have a home run vs Gallardo.
• The only Reds' starters who bat below .300 vs Gallardo are Hanigan and Gomes.
• The team is 37-111 vs Gallardo, which is a .333 average.
• Gallardo has very interesting splits, because RHB only bat .233 vs him, while LHB bat .252, but the RHB have much more power. RHB have 31 homers to the lefty's 16, while having nearly the same amount of career hits vs him.
• LHB draw many more walks than RHB (127 to 97, over less AB)
• Gallardo has a history of bad 4th innings, where he has given up 14 home runs, which double the next highest inning.
• He's also bad in 1st and 6th innings, with a 4.66 and 5.37 ERA respectively. Every other inning is near 3.0.
• The Reds have the most career hr vs Gallardo with 6 and a career 5.26 ERA (2-3).
• 9-14 during day games (29-11 night), pretty big difference there.
• 22-13 with a 3.33 ERA at Miller Park.

Pick to Click: Stubbs

Now, onto LeCure..here are his stats vs the Brewers. His last start (4/19) he went 5.1 innings and gave up 5 runs on 9 hits (4 home runs) vs the D'Backs. Some other tidbits:

• Casey McGehee and Corey Hart each have one hit, everyone else (not including Randy Wolf) is 0-14 vs LeCure.
• Team batting average of .167, 3-18.
• Some more good news is LeCure does very good vs Righties, and as I've mentioned in the previous 2 posts the Brewers have a RHB saturated lineup normally - with 7 RHB.
• RHB bat .245 compared to LHB .274.
• K/BB ratio is much better vs RHB as well with a 2.75 compared to 1.24 vs LHB.
• 0-1 with a 3.45 ERA during day games.
• Interesting stat here, even though it doesn't relate to the game. LeCure's ERA with Hanigan is 3.29, and with Hernandez it is 5.28.

Pick to Click: Corey Hart

Feel better about the game? Obviously it's not a given, especially with LeCure's small sample size vs the Brewers, but I feel much better about this game after looking into it. It'd be huge to come back to Cincy with a win, especially considering the Marlins are 15-7 and it doesn't look like they will ever lose again...and they'll be in their natural habitat with all this rain. One more note....HALA MADRID! If you're not a soccer fan, you won't get it...no big deal. Go Reds!

@EricLilly7

4/26 Reds @ Brewers

Great to see the bats come alive last night, and I'm very surprised Dusty switched lineups so quick. Usually it takes him a while to adjust with things like that, I'm very impressed. I was actually going to do a little write - up on how I thought the lineup should be something like Sappelt/Heisey in LF while moving BP to 2 or 4, and Stubbs to 2 or 4. Sappelt, Stubbs, Votto, Phillips, Bruce is how I'd like to see it, but I like the changes he made. Today I was going to try to rush a post before my exam at 6pm, but when I found out Mike Leake has no stats vs the Brewers and Marco Estrada had no stats vs the Reds in starts, I decided to just not make a post for today.

Mike Leake is 3-0 with a 4.94 ERA, but had a great start last time out.

-Also a note, RHB are batting .170 this year vs Leake with more K's (12) than hits (8), this should be good news as the Brewers only have 2 LHB starters (Kotsay, Fielder) as stated in yesterday's blog post.

Marco Estrada has 2 starts and 2 relief appearances and is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA, with his last start coming 9 days ago vs the Nationals where he went 6 innings and gave up 1 run on 5 hits. His out pitch, and his best pitch, is the curveball. He also has a fastball, cutter, and change.

Off topic:

-Some quotes from after the Cards' series, Pujols' praise for Volquez, and a cool new nickname for Travis Wood.

-Buster Olney on Brandon Phillips in the 4 spot and his tweeting.

Sorry, about the short post, I'll be back at it tomorrow for LeCure who has a GREAT history vs the Brewers.

4/25 Reds @ Brewers

Tough way to end that series last night, it seems like the Reds read my blog and swung at early pitches vs Westbrook, but all we could get was walks and pop-ups. I'm just going off what I heard, I was at my Grandparent's house for Easter and they don't have cable! This'll be a quick post because I have to leave for class in 20 minutes, I apologize. Tonight we have Bronson Arroyo (2-2, 4.24) vs Chris Narveson (1-0, 2.19) at Miller Park.

We'll start with the lefty Narveson, who through 4 starts only has one decision, that being a win vs the Chicago Cubs. His last start he went 6 IP vs the Phillies and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits. Here are the Reds stats vs Narveson. Now, some tidbits:

• Joey Votto is the only Reds' player to have a home run, and the only with over 2 hits. He is 4-7 lifetime vs Narveson.
• Gomes is 0-6 with 4K vs the lefty Narveson.
• Reds are 9-45 lifetime vs Narveson.
• Over the past three years LHB are batting .245 vs Narveson, but he's doing even better this year at a .158 clip.
• LHB have 3 home runs vs Narveson over the past 3 years, 25 for RHB. (One of those LHB homers was Votto)
• RHB have done much better than LHB over the same time frame, at a .267 clip.
• ERA at GABP is 1.42.

Pick to Click: Drew Stubbs

Now, onto Arroyo. Arroyo's last start was a 6.1IP start vs the D'backs where he gave up 3 runs on 5 hits. We have a much bigger sample size here of Arroyo vs the Brewers. Notables:

• 6 Brewers have 10 or more appearances vs Arroyo, Of those 6, 2 have above a .300 average. Those 2 guys are Mark Kotsay and Craig Counsell (Counsell will most likely not start, Kotsay starts in RF).
• McGehee is 2-10, Fielder is 9-38, Braun is 8-32, and Weeks is 5-29 with an astounding 12 strikeouts....so maybe Counsell will start at 2B over Weeks?
• LHB bat .292 against Arroyo the past 3 years, and the Brewers only have 2 LHB starting in Fielder and Kotsay.
• Great news here is Arroyo, in the past 3 years, has had 4 starts at Miller Park and is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA.

Pick to Click: Prince Fielder

Sounds like we have a pretty good shot to win, but I thought we were going to win last night for sure. One other thing to note is Yuniesky Betancourt is the worst defensive SS in the Majors, and he is starting for the Brewers. No off-topic tonight, because I'm going to be late for class. Sorry and GO REDS!

PS. Don't judge me if there are typos!

4/24 Reds @ Cardinals - Easter Sunday!

Huge win for the Reds yesterday. Thank you all for continuing to visit my blog, we've just reached 1,000 views over 18 posts which is much higher than I thought I'd ever get! Now onto last night's game...my Twitter timeline was full of Reds' fans who had given up hope in the 4th inning down 2-0, just because the team has played bad lately. They forgot that this team has the will to win, and that it's baseball. People are so quick to write a team off that was in the playoffs last year, and has the talent to win the NL Central. Stop treating this team like the Bengals, who deserve to be doubted when they are down. Anyways, we've got a huge game tonight on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. We know that Jake Westbrook will start for the Cardinals, but the Reds starter is still up for grabs. Sam LeCure is the listed starter, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Volquez start and then push LeCure back a day because Volquez missed his start on Friday. For Volquez info vs Cardinals, check the post on 4/22/2011.

Sam LeCure has one career start vs the Cardinals, here is the game log. To see the stats of current Cardinals vs LeCure, check out this link. Now, a little analysis:

• LeCure only has given up 2 hits versus current Cardinals, one to Molina and one to Pujols.
• It's worth noting that LeCure had 4 walks in that game in 5.1 innings, but that is very un-LeCure like. He has 4 walks all year, so I doubt we see that again unless he can't handle the ESPN and Sunday Night pressure at Busch Stadium.
• The Cards have a lot of RHB, and LeCure holds RHB to .245 in his career, compared to .274 vs LHB.
• His K/BB ratio is 2.75 vs RHB, and 1.24 vs LHB, that's a huge difference and shows his confidence vs RHB. He has more walks vs LHB (17 to 12) while pitching to RHB much more often (170 to 114 Plate Appearances).

Pick to Click: Lance Berkman

Now, onto Jake Westbrook who is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA. His last start he went 3 innings and gave up 7 runs on 7 hits vs the Washington Nationals. Here are his stats vs the Reds. Onto some of the other stuff:

• Westbrook has thrown more walks than strikeouts this year. He's walked 13 while only striking out 9 in 18.1 innings. He's also given up 30 hits in 18.1 innings.
• Gomes and Rolen have homers vs Westbrook, Rolen will most likely not start again tonight.
• The team as a whole has batted 16-53 (.302), and the only batter to really struggle vs him is Bruce at a 0-3 clip.
• Splits on avg are .276/.277, so there is no advantage there for RHB or LHB. Homers, hits, doubles, etc are all nearly the exact same as well.
• One difference in the splits is K/BB ratio, where vs RHB he has a huge advantage 2.88 to 1.21 for LHB.
• He has a 4.79 ERA at Busch Stadium, but has only given up 2 home runs there in 47 IP.
• One other thing to watch out on is pay extra attention on 0-1 and 1-0 pitch counts, as Westbrook gives up most of his hits in these pitch counts. I thought it was an interesting stat so I looked up a few other pitchers to see if there was a trend, and the guys I looked up gave up most of their hits on 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 counts. He's given up 342 hits in those counts, which is 25% of the hits he's given up in his career. Pretty weird statistic considering this stat tracks every count from 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2. All of those possibilities, but 25% of his hits are from 0-1, 1-0..so I'm going to try to pay extra attention to that tonight and see what happens.
• Also worth noting that he gives up a lot of hits on the first pitch, 42% of hits given up occur in the 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 count.

Pick to Click: Jay Bruce

I think the Reds finally take a series at Busch Stadium tonight, as Jake Westbrook has been pitching awful lately and I think LeCure or Volquez will both pitch good enough for the Reds to win. It would be a huge series win heading into Milwaukee, so let's see if we can do it!

No off topic today, but please vote in the poll, because I'm considering creating a website not on blogspot. I just want to know if you guys would consistently visit a website that had more permanent content like a profile for each Reds' player with their tendencies, as well as the current blog and maybe some other things. If you have any comments on it feel free to comment on it, email me at edlilly08@gmail.com, or hit me up on Twitter @EricLilly7.

4/23 Reds @ Cardinals

First of all, I'd like to thank mother nature for messing with my blog post yesterday and having Maloney start instead of Volquez. After last night's loss the Reds optioned Maloney to AAA and brought up Carlos Fisher just to give the bullpen another healthy arm. The Reds and Cards meet up at Busch Stadium for the second game of this three game series with Travis Wood (1-2, 5.73) facing off vs Chris Carpenter (0-2, 4.13).

Carpenter's last start was a 7 inning, 5 hit beauty vs. the Dodgers. It was the first time this year that he hasn't given up a run in a start. Let's check out his stats vs the Reds here, and as expected there is a pretty strong sample size presented.

• Out of the 10 players with 10+ AB vs Carpenter, only one is batting over .300, Joey Votto. Votto is 7-20 (.350) with a few walks and a home run. The only other player with a home run is Scott Rolen, but I'm pretty sure he will not play today.
• The team combined is 41-203 for a .202 average.
• 5 of the Reds expected starters bat below .200 vs Carpenter in their careers: Hanigan, Phillips, Janish, Gomes, and Bruce.
• Carpenter's splits are fairly even over the past three years as LHB bat .237 compared to .238 for RHB.
• Not much else you need to know about Carpenter other than this and he has a great Fastball and Curveball that he will throw 77% of the time, the other 23% of the time is his Slider and Changeup.
• In the last 3 years, Carpenter has 63.1 IP vs the Reds, with a 1.56 ERA.
• In 32 career starts at the new Busch Stadium he has an exceptional 2.63 ERA.

Pick to Click: Jay Bruce

Wood had a tough start last time out vs the Pirates where he went 3.1 innings and gave up 6 runs on 8 hits. Travis Wood has only faced 5 Cardinals over career, and here are his results vs them. Some tidbits:

• In Wood's only start at Busch Stadium he went 7 innings and gave up no runs on 5 hits. The reason the sample size is only 5 players is because some of those players aren't on the Cardinals anymore.
• Rasmus and Descalso will be the only LHB for Wood to pick apart, as LHB bat .136 vs Wood.
• RHB bat .240 vs Wood, and he'll get a heavy dose of power hitting RHB with Berkman (switch, but will bat R vs Wood), Pujols and Holliday.

Pick to Click: Reds Killer Berkman

This wouldn't seem like a terrible matchup, but Wood hasn't pitched well lately. Meanwhile, Carpenter seems to be turning it up just in time to face the Reds. Hopefully we win, and can say "I wonder how Chris Carpenter will explain this to his son", but history tells us the Reds will probably lose today's game. The Reds best chance of winning a game this series is tomorrow vs Jake Westbrook who will face LeCure or Volquez, that has yet to be announced.

Off topic:

-Votto is batting under .400 for the first time this year after last night's effort.

-I am now famous, as my tweet was published on www.cincinnati.com

-It has now been 6 straight games for the Reds giving up a run in the 1st inning.

-Check out this crazy picture of a truck hanging on the side of a parking garage in StL.

-Check out a link @DFArlington found of the KKK formally asking for a KKK day at the Reds ballpark in 1924. Absolutely crazy how much things have changed in 87 years.

Follow me on Twitter @EricLilly

4/22 Reds @ Cardinals Emergency Post!

Miguel Batista was just named StL's new starter because of the expected rain, so I'm going to analyze him really quick. Also, a shoutout to mother nature for wasting an hour or so of my time analyzing Kyle McClellan last night...although he may come in for relief after a rain delay?

Miguel Batista is a reliever for the Cards, but is just making this spot start for the Cards because of the rain. Here are his stats vs the Reds.

• Edgar Renteria is 9-34 (.265), but has 10 rbi.
• Cairo starting over Rolen (hurt) may be a blessing in disguise, as he is 4-8 vs Batista compared to Rolen's 4-25.
• Gomes is 5-10, Stubbs is 2-2, and BP is 4-5.
• In the past 3 years LHB have batted .292, while RHB have batted .259. Also worth noting LHB have .416 OBP compared to a .310 for RHB...aka he is uncomfortable facing LHB as well.

Go Reds! Hopefully everyone stays safe from the Tornado that is nearly to St L.

4/22 Reds @ Cardinals

The most anticipated series so far this season starts today vs the Cardinals, even more anticipated than the opening series vs the Brewers in my opinion. The Cardinals hate the Reds, and the Reds hate the Cards. Cards' fans are especially pissed because we knocked them off their thrown last year, and we are here to stay! Trash talking is at an all time high, just check out Brandon Phillips' twitter page. Here's a few tidbits from @datdudebp:

• @RasmusGirl sent "You are such a HATER" to BP, his response was "Yes I am, but you just mad cuz Colby (Colby Rasmus) doesn't love you back! Change your twitter name lady"
• Brandon tweeted "Just landed in St. Louis! Sad face... But these wins will make me happy! On our way 2 the hotel & I hope its not Hilton at the BallPark! Lol"
  
• and "My teammates ask me if I knew where some good places 2 eat at in St. Louis! I said, "Yea, come with me 2 the store 2 get some Lunchables!""
• And lastly a pic that BP tweeted of him and Nelly is pretty cool right here.

Now back to the usual shenanigans.. in the series opener we have Edinson Volquez (2-0, 6.75) vs Kyle McClellan (2-0, 1.89) facing off at 8:15pm at Busch Stadium. It was huge to win the finale vs D'backs and maybe get some momentum for this exciting series. Forecast has some thunderstorms in it, but I'm too lazy to look up how bad it looks, and last time I predicted a rain out it got in with no delays. For all weather updates I'm sure you can check out @stormchasernick on Twitter who is also a huge Reds' fan.

First, we'll check out Kyle McClellan, here are his stats vs the Reds. In his last start he went 7IP vs the Dodgers and only gave up 1 run on 6 hits to defeat Clayton Kershaw. Some notables on McClellan:

• Brandon Phillips is 0-9 with 4k, so with all the smack he's talking hopefully this changes! It probably will be a tough night for BP, as you'll see in a little with McClellan's strong curveball.
• Ramon Hernandez and Joey Votto have home runs.
• Only players w/ more than one hit vs McClellan are Hernandez (3-7) and Renteria (2-2). I expect a Renteria start as he is playing his former team.
• He has done exceptional this year vs LHB who are batting .222 (.263 OBP) and have the only HR vs him.
• RHB have hit him well at .324 and he also has a tendency to walk RHB and they have a .410 OBP.
• He gives up a HR every 40.75 AB, mainly due to his tendency to throw breaking pitches.
• He has a 2.77 career ERA at Busch Stadium.

Now a little FanGraphs analysis on McClellan and his changes from last year to this year:

• This year his Changeup has been his most effective pitch (3.3 wCH rating). Remember wCH stands for "Changeups above average" or how much more effective his changeup is compared to the rest of the league.
• So I decided to look into why his Changeup has been his best pitch this year, because his Curve, Cutter, and Fastball were better than it last year..and not only has he improved it (Thanks to Dave Duncan probably), but he has thrown it 11.3% of the time compared to 5.9% last year.
• His Curveball (which is nasty) has only been thrown at a 13.1% rate this year, compared to 22.6% last year which is where the extra changeups are coming from.
• He's also throwing his cutter a little more than last year 11%-->15%
• Looking at Plate Disclipline stats you can see a correlation between them and the change in pitch selection. For example, batters swing % on balls is down to 19.7% from 27.1%, which can be explained by the lower amount of curveballs which McClellan likes to throw a little below the zone to get batters to chase.
• The strike zone swing % has also gone up 6% from 57 to 63, which can be attributed to more changeups and less curveballs.
• He's throwing more strikes (54.8% up from 48.6%), more first pitch strikes (59.9% to 62.8%), and batters are making more contact (86.9% from 82.2%) which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
• His Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio is 1.20 compared to his career average of 1.50, and this has gone up because he's throwing less curveballs
• As I mentioned before all of his pitches are strong, and the only pitch he's had issues with in the past is his Cutter (-5.0 wCT last year), but it has improved this year so it's hard to tell if it's sample size or if he improved on that as well, I tend to think there is an improvement because he's also throwing it more this year.
• IMO, this is bad news for the Reds because a lot of our hitters have extreme flaws vs certain pitches, I.e BP and Stubbs vs Curveballs. With his strong arsenal of 4-5 pitches, he should be able to hold the Reds to 2-3 runs over 7IP.

Cards closer, Trever Miller (just replaced Franklin I believe), has a good history vs all the Reds except Renteria and Rolen. Stubbs and BP are also 1-2, BP has a home run and Stubbs has a triple. Check 'em out here.

Pick to Click: Joey Votto

Now, onto Volquez...can the first inning woes end?! Here are his stats vs current Cards:

• Pujols is only player with a home run vs Volquez, and he has 2 and is 3-7 vs him.
• Cards bat .342 in their careers vs Volquez if you subtract Lohse's 0-5.
• Holliday and Berkman are 2-6 (berkman also has 4 bb), while Rasmus and Theriot are 2-4 each.
• RHB and LHB have the same averages this year vs Volquez, but he has given up 5 of his 6 homers and 13 of his 16 runs up vs RHB, but tends to walk LHB a lot more.
• This is bad news because the Cards are stacked from the right side, minus Colby Rasmus and Berkman (switch hitter).

Cordero has had a great career vs all the Cards players except Pujols (3-10) and Rasmus (4-6), most notably Berkman is 0-12 with 5K. Check the others out here.

Pick to Click: Matt Holliday

It doesn't look great for the Reds tonight, but there will be a lot of passion in this game and anything can happen. There will be a playoff type atmosphere at Busch Stadium, and it should be a fun game to watch/listen to. I think the Cards pull it off by a run or two. No fun off topic stuff today because I've been so busy and out of the loop that I have no idea what is going on in the world of sports. Go Reds! Follow me on Twitter @EricLilly7

4/21 D'Backs at Reds

Business Day Special to close out this 3 game series with the Diamondbacks at 12:35pm tomorrow, with Mike Leake (2-0, 5.40) facing off vs Daniel Hudson (0-3, 4.26). Let's try to steal the series finale vs the D'backs with Leake on the mound. No pun intended!

Hudson faced the Reds back on April 9th, and had a 7 inning start while only giving up 2 runs.

• If you recall from the last post on Hudson, his splits are fairly even, but RHB bat .233 to LHB .200 this season.
• In one career start at GABP he went 8IP and gave up 4 hits without giving up a run.
• 8 of his 13 home runs given up have been in the first 15 pitches of the game, so we will get an idea early on if he'll have a good start or not.
• Two players for the Reds bat .300 or above vs Hudson and they are Rolen who bats .375 (3-8) and Janish .600 (3-5), everyone else is .200 or below.

Pick to Click: Brandon Phillips

Now we'll try to look at Leake without analyzing the off-field antics! D'backs bat .409 vs Leake, check it out here.

• Leake's ERA @ GABP this year (2 starts) is 3.00, and 11.57 away from home (1 start).
• RHB are still not doing well vs Leake w. a .212 Avg while LHB are sitting comfortably at .310. This isn't good news with the LHB lineup.
• Leake's 11.57 away ERA of course came in Phoenix, and if you recall Ryan Roberts (future Reds Killer) had a three run home run vs Leake and Stephen Drew had 2 rbi.
• I fully expect to see the lefties Parra, Drew, Miranda, Montero and Johnson starting to load up vs Leake. If Leake does get through these lefties successfully I love match-ups like this for our bullpen where we can bring in Bray or Chapman (probably Bray because of Chapman's two IP tonight) and take advantage of a loaded LHB lineup.

Pick to Click: Drew

Doesn't look good for the Reds, but the past 5 games the match-ups have looked pretty good.....so we'll have to wait and see. I just post stats, and try to do a little predicting, but the main thing with stats is you can't completely rely on them or use them to predict baseball. I say the Reds win tomorrow, and it's not because of any match-up, it's because I can't see us losing 6 of 7 to the Pirates and D'backs.

Off topic stuff:

-Josh Johnson has carried a no hitter to the fourth inning in all four of his starts this year

-Billy Hamilton had an inside the park home run yesterday, his third career home run, 2 of them being inside the parkers.

-For your sport managers/marketers, you'll appreciate this idea that is being implemented at Petco Park. Great marketing, IMO. Here's a video of it.

-Former Red Aaron Harang is now 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA. Petco Park is ridiculous, but congrats to Aaron.

4/20 D'Backs @ Reds

No post today, I apologize again...just got out of class and he normally lets us out very early.

Tomorrow's post will be up tonight..

4/19 D'backs at Reds

Didn't get a chance to watch the game last night because I was in my Sociology of Sport class, but I can't say I regret not seeing it. I apologize for the slacking lately, which has run into today because it is now within an hour of first pitch and I'm just starting this. I'll be back on track in a bit, just a few night classes combined with work have knocked me off balance.

Great news for Reds fans tonight! Sam LeCure is pitching, and most likely (cross your fingers) there will not be too many walks. 14 K to 4 BB this year for LeCure, which is incredible compared to Volquez and Leake. LeCure has easily been our second best pitcher this year behind Arroyo, so let's hope he does well again tonight because we need it. Of course, you'll see later on in the blog why this LeCure start may not be good news..The other great news is Brandon Phillips is returning!

Tonights game is Armando Gallaraga (2-0, 6.75) vs Sam LeCure (0-0, 2.25) at 7:10pm at GABP.

LeCure has barely faced any D'backs, but they are 0-8 vs him in their careers:

• If you recall correctly from my old D'backs posts, you'll remember they are a lefty loaded lineup, which is bad news for the Reds tonight. LeCure hasn't done very well vs LHB in his career as they have batted .304 vs him and in 17 IP they have 21 hits, 15 walks, and 3 home runs.
• Earlier I said LeCure was good news for the Reds because of his lack of walks, but notice LeCure has a tendency to walk LHB. He only has 10 BB in 30IP vs RHB, but 15 BB in 17 IP vs LHB.
• 5 LHB are starting for the D'backs: Parra, Montero, Miranda, Johnson and Drew...doesn't look good for LeCure.
• One more good note, because I don't want to end the write-up on a bad note like that: LeCure is 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 18 BB in 31 IP.

Reds are 6-21 with an RBI vs JJ Putz (D'backs closer)
Pick to Click: Gerardo Parra

Now, onto Armando Gallaraga, who has no appearances vs the Reds as he was a former American Leaguer. If you recall, he was the Detroit Tiger who got screwed out of a perfect game by Jim Joyce. Hermida and Hernandez each have a hit off him as members of different teams. Now, onto the important stuff...:

• Last start he gave up 5 runs in 5IP vs the Cardinals.
• Gallaraga is much better vs RHB and has a 2.5 K/BB ratio vs them compared to a 1.05 vs LHB. This clearly shows how confident he is vs RHB.
• Gallaraga has a great slider that he likes to throw vs RHB.
• After a quick check-up on FanGraphs the only two Reds who are garbage vs good sliders are Gomes and Phillips...a huge positive is that the rest of the usual starters do very well vs Sliders and Stubbs is the best vs them.

D'backs 6-45 vs Cordero.

Pick to Click: Jay Bruce

It doesn't look good both ways IMO, could see a lot of runs tonight. I think the Reds win a close one, but the bullpen has to pitch well tonight and we need a quality start from LeCure to get the Reds back rolling. I really like the Reds matchups vs Gallaraga's out pitch, the slider. Let's go Reds! @EricLilly7

Short off topic coming up, but check out this article:

-Incredible article on Joey Votto here, a must read.

-Half of Jonny Gomes 12 hits are home runs. Can he keep it up? Remember it's a contract year.

-Note: Everyone who isn't a fan of the NBA, please try to find a way to watch a game or two of the playoffs this year, they are incredible. I guarantee you'll be converted.

4/18 Pirates @ Reds

I don't have time to make a post today as I had to work all day and now I have class in an hour, sorry! We do have Travis Wood facing Kevin Correia.

Here is some info that I can give you real quick...

Travis Wood vs Pirates

Kevin Correia vs Reds

Also, Mike Leake was arrested for theft, details will come later...

I have heard from a first hand source that Chapman had a great bullpen session today w/ Price watching and there was no team doctor present, it was a long session so I doubt we'll see him tonight but we should see him next series.

4/17 Pirates @ Reds

Great win for the Reds today, as they clobbered the Pirates 11-2. Nice to see some hitting with men on base for a change. I thought the Reds would win big, and they did, but it wasn't because of my pick to click Bruce. Jay had another tough day at the plate, but did get a hit late in the game so he didn't go o-fer. My pick to click for the Bucco's was Garrett Jones and he was 2-3 with an rbi.

Sunday's matchup is Jeff Karstens(1-0, 0.00) vs Edinson Volquez (2-0, 5.82). This is Karstens first start of the year, he has had 3 relief appearances. As many of you know, Volquez has a very good history vs the Pirates, so I'm going to talk about that first. The last time Volquez faced the Pirates he went 7 innings, while only giving up 1 hit and had 10 strike outs. The link I usually use to find how players do vs teams in their career never works for Volquez, but from what I can tell he is 1-0 vs them in his career over 5 or so starts with no bad starts. Check out the stats here, and here are some notes:

• The only player who has more than 5 AB's vs Volquez is Doumit and he is 5-13 for a .385 average.
• Everyone else is 2-39 with 15ks.
• Volquez has a 6.75 ERA vs righties, but they are only batting .238 vs him. Out of the 10 hits in 12 IP vs them, 3 of them have been home runs.

I think Volquez is going to turn a corner tomorrow and have a solid 6 inning quality start (with a good first inning as well). I think he's starting to get more loose this year and should have better control tomorrow. This is just a prediction, not based on any quantitative analysis.

Pick to Click: Andrew McCutchen

Jeff Karstens vs the Reds. As you can see, the Reds have a very good history vs Karstens. Here are some of the notables:

• Ramon Hernandez (.250) and Jay Bruce (.273) are the only two batters to bat lower than .300 vs Karstens out of Reds who have more than 1 plate appearance vs him.
• The team bats .425 vs Karstens, 31-73 with 8 doubles and 4 home runs. The home runs are from Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey.
• Joey Votto bats .714, 5-7 with 3 doubles, and also has an .800 OBP with 3 walks.
• Phillips is 6-15 with a HR and 5 rbi.
• Jonny Gomes is 4-7.
• LHB destroy Karstens over the past three years they bat .306 and have 18 home runs in 50 innings and a 6.93 ERA.

Pick to Click: Hard to pick one...but I'm going with my gut here Drew Stubbs. (Joey Votto seems too easy of a pick..)

I think the Reds win big again on Sunday, as all of the numbers show. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dusty sit Phillips one more day because of our past success vs Karstens, but I'd like to see him start.

Off topic shenanigans:

-The 7 runs scored in the 5th inning yesterday were the most we've scored in an inning all year.

-Interesting stat I ran into...Denard Span has 49 steals in his last 63 attempts. Very solid ratio, until you consider he's been picked off 21 times during the same time span!

-FanGraphs talks about Bruce's slow start.

-Bass fishing is now a high school sport in Illinois. Never thought I'd see the day..sounds pretty cool though.

Didn't have time to try all the in depth FanGraphs for Sunday's game, maybe tomorrow. Follow me on Twitter @EricLilly7