Friday, April 8, 2011

4/9 Reds @ D'backs

Thank you everybody for the support so far, and I'd also like to thank Blog Red Machine for mentioning me on their "Blog Roll". Tell every Reds fan you know! Some people have been asking where I get all the #s, and the website would be, my favorite website. I'm always open for questions or comments at my email or twitter @EricLilly7.

A quick recap of that game that we would all like to forget last night. As we found out from the stats I posted, if Kennedy gets through the first three innings he usually coasts 3-6, etc. Solid young pitcher, and I think he will continue to improve, along with his teammate that we'll see tonight, Daniel Hudson. I also think it's important to note that both of my "picks to click", Votto and Kelly Johnson, had home runs last night. It's also important to note that both were in garbage time so I can't be too excited about the picks! Kirk Gibson went with the right heavy lineup (dropping Miranda, Parra) and it worked.

Moving onto today...we have an 8:10pm start for this game where Daniel Hudson (0-1, 4.50era) is facing off vs Bronson Arroyo (1-0, 3.86 ERA) at Chase Field.

Hudson has faced the Reds twice, and one of those was an 4 hit, 8 inning beauty at GABP. There is a very small sample size, not one Redleg has over 8 plate appearances vs Hudson. Of the 49 total plate appearances vs him, there have only been 10 hits vs him. Only Janish has a homer vs him, and there have been 17 strikeouts. Believe it or not the only two players in those 49 plate appearances that have gotten extra base hits are Janish (Hr, double) and Travis Wood with a double. Check out the ugly numbers right here.

Now a couple of interesting notes on Hudson...maybe this will give a little positive outlook...
  • Hudson's first start of the year vs the Rockies was a 3-1 loss where he didn't get any run support. He went 6 innings, gave up 3 runs on 6 hits. He also had 5K and 2BB.
  • Hudson only has 17 career starts, so remember sample size is small.
  • RHB .216 avg while LHB are batting .201 vs Hudson.
  • He loves Chase Field. He's 3-1 (6 games) with a 1.87 ERA, which is much worse than his 0.00 ERA at GABP so maybe we have a shot! In 43 innings at home he's given up 30 hits compared to 37 strikeouts.
  • Only given up 12 home runs in his career, but 10 of those are solo shots. This leads me to believe that he may lose focus with no men on base.
  • 8 of his 12 home runs occur within his first 15 pitches of a game. Note: He used to be a reliever, but only gave up 2 HR as a reliever so 6 of 10 home runs given up as a starter were within the first 15 pitches of the game. VERY similar to Kennedy in terms of shaky starts, but watch out if they get through the first inning or so because these kids have talent.
  • RHB have a little more power vs him with a 7 to 4 home run advantage and a 10 to 4 double advantage which leads to a 70 point slugging % advantage.
  • #1 hitter has the most HR vs him with 3....go Stubbs!
Pick to Click: Paul Janish. Once I pick the dude he'll probably cool off though..

Now, onto Arroyo vs the D'backs. In an attempt to keep this from being the largest blog post you've ever seen I'm going to post a link to D'backs batters vs Arroyo right here, and I'll summarize the key parts right here if you don't like all the confusing website stuff:
  • Henry Blanco is 1-17, but will most likely not start at catcher because Montero is hot. Montero is 5-9 with 2 homers vs Arroyo.
  • Justin Upton is awful vs Arroyo, he is 2-16 with 7 K's.
  • Melvin Mora and Stephen Drew both bat .214.
  • The only D'backs projected starters that bat below .300 vs Arroyo are Mora, Drew, Nady (.292 and is most familiar w/ Arroyo with 24 ABs), and Upton.
  • Kelly Johnson, Chris Young, Gerardo Parra, and Miguel Montero all bat over .300 as well as bench players Russell Branyan and Willie Bloomquist.
  • Arroyo is 2-0 at Chase Field, but with a 4.40 ERA.
I think we're going to see a lefty loaded lineup with Parra (L), Young(R), Upton(R), Mora(R), Drew(L), Johnson(L), Miranda (L), and Montero (L). Depending on how match-up oriented Kirk Gibson is, Nady (R) could also start at 1B over Miranda.

Pick to Click: Kelly Johnson. Also watch Montero who is still batting over .500.

After all of this, it seems like the D'backs have the clear advantage tonight, but anything can happen in baseball. Arroyo needs to be prepared for a lot of lefties (.292 vs LHB, .226 vs RHB), and the Reds need to get to Hudson early and hopefully get him in a funk. The D'backs bullpen is well rested as Heilman is the only reliever that has been used the past 2 days.

Now, onto the stats and off topic tidbits!

-Dusty Baker is 2 wins away from having 250+ wins with 3 different clubs, and he'd be the 11th manager to accomplish this feat.

-The Reds have given up a run in the first inning in 5 of their first 7 games.

-Phillips is angry, and I like it. Showing a little leadership.

-Jonny Gomes got his 10th walk last night, that's 25% of his total from last year. His average is terrible, and he doesn't have a single yet, but if he can keep his walks up and get his average to a respectable number he will get on my good side.

-My favorite Minor Leaguer, Yorman Rodriguez (18 year old OF in Dayton), hit a homer in his 4th at bat at Dayton yesterday.

-The walk-up at the series finale vs the Astros was the highest total for a first Business Day Special of the year at 6,301.

-Not a big fan of Tony LaRussa, but he's got some big balls. He brought Craig, an outfielder, into the infield grass for the final 3 outs of the 11th inning while a runner was on third base..and it worked. The Cards later lost!

-According to Buster Olney, in the Red Sox v Yankees game yesterday there was not a swing and miss on a pitch till the 55th pitch. Wow.

-Cool new things coming to ballparks.

-If you follow the draft, check out these two articles. I've always been one of those guys that thinks college players are the MUCH safer bet in the draft, but check it out quantitatively. These two articles brought to you by FanGraphs, a sweet baseball website. One and Two.

-And now, the tweet of the day, brought to you by James White (Former UC Basketball player):
"I seen a chick today uglier than Charles Barkley golf swing lol" -@flight8

Enjoy! Go Reds.

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