We'll start with Arroyo vs the Marlins. Here are his stats vs them, and now for some analysis:
- Omar Infante has 4 doubles out of his 5 hits vs Arroyo, but is only batting .263.
- In 54 at bats, none of the Marlins have home runs.
- LHB do much better vs Arroyo (.285 compared to .240 for RHB), and the Marlins lineup is a little different today and we'll see more LHB. Dobbs is at 3b, Coghlan at CF, Bonafacio is in LF. One thing to note is Bonafacio is starting in place of a LHB LF (Cousins) and is a switch hitter who is actually better as a RHB.
- Arroyo is 36-28 with a 3.50 ERA at GABP in his career.
Now, onto Ricky Nolasco vs the Reds. Some notables:
- Edgar Renteria is 0-18 vs him, but is not starting, Janish is 0-3.
- Votto, Stubbs and Hanigan have home runs vs him.
- Team is 12-67 with a .179 batting average.
- Taking out the guys who will not start vs Nolasco the team is 11-43 which is a .255 batting average and is much more respectable.
- LHB bat .270, while RHB bat .256.
- He's also much more comfortable vs RHB, with a 5.86 K/BB ratio (compared to 2.75) which is a ridiculous rate. Note: He gets a solid amount of K's, but he is very well known for his control and has only 4 walks in 33.1 IP this year.
- May is his worse month by far, where hitters have a .304 average and he has a 5.59 ERA. If you took out May (10-11 record), Nolasco would have a .500 or better record in every month.
- He's given up 26 home runs in the first pitch of a count, next highest is 18 in the 1-0 count. Home runs account for 21% of the total hits he's given up in the first pitch of a count.
- He doesn't appear to be comfortable pitching in any situation, unless there are 2 strikes on the hitter. 0-2, 2-2, and 1-2 are the only counts where batters are hitting below .300 vs him, meanwhile every other count is easily over .300 some even over .400. This will be a fun trend to watch during the game.
- He's 1-0 with a 4.34 era at GABP in 4 career starts
Can't really tell who will win this one, but I can't wait to watch this game to follow Nolasco's trends. This would be a huge win for the Reds and it'd be nice to get a little win streak here at home. Follow me on Twitter @EricLilly7 , I may have some analysis on the trend that I mentioned above.