Sunday, May 1, 2011

5/1 Marlins @ Reds

May is FINALLY here, hopefully all this rain stops. Last night was a huge win for the Reds to stay above .500, which despite popular belief, isn't too bad considering all the injuries. Today is the rubber match of the 3 game series at 4:10pm with Bronson Arroyo (3-2, 3.64) facing off vs Ricky Nolasco (2-0, 3.24). The reason for the weird 4:10 start time is because of the Flying Pig Marathon in Cincinnati.

We'll start with Arroyo vs the Marlins. Here are his stats vs them, and now for some analysis:
  • Omar Infante has 4 doubles out of his 5 hits vs Arroyo, but is only batting .263.
  • In 54 at bats, none of the Marlins have home runs.
  • LHB do much better vs Arroyo (.285 compared to .240 for RHB), and the Marlins lineup is a little different today and we'll see more LHB. Dobbs is at 3b, Coghlan at CF, Bonafacio is in LF. One thing to note is Bonafacio is starting in place of a LHB LF (Cousins) and is a switch hitter who is actually better as a RHB.
  • Arroyo is 36-28 with a 3.50 ERA at GABP in his career.
Pick to Click: Hanley Ramirez

Now, onto Ricky Nolasco vs the Reds. Some notables:
  • Edgar Renteria is 0-18 vs him, but is not starting, Janish is 0-3.
  • Votto, Stubbs and Hanigan have home runs vs him.
  • Team is 12-67 with a .179 batting average.
  • Taking out the guys who will not start vs Nolasco the team is 11-43 which is a .255 batting average and is much more respectable.
  • LHB bat .270, while RHB bat .256.
  • He's also much more comfortable vs RHB, with a 5.86 K/BB ratio (compared to 2.75) which is a ridiculous rate. Note: He gets a solid amount of K's, but he is very well known for his control and has only 4 walks in 33.1 IP this year.
  • May is his worse month by far, where hitters have a .304 average and he has a 5.59 ERA. If you took out May (10-11 record), Nolasco would have a .500 or better record in every month.
  • He's given up 26 home runs in the first pitch of a count, next highest is 18 in the 1-0 count. Home runs account for 21% of the total hits he's given up in the first pitch of a count.
  • He doesn't appear to be comfortable pitching in any situation, unless there are 2 strikes on the hitter. 0-2, 2-2, and 1-2 are the only counts where batters are hitting below .300 vs him, meanwhile every other count is easily over .300 some even over .400. This will be a fun trend to watch during the game.
  • He's 1-0 with a 4.34 era at GABP in 4 career starts
My Pick to Click: Chris Valaika

Can't really tell who will win this one, but I can't wait to watch this game to follow Nolasco's trends. This would be a huge win for the Reds and it'd be nice to get a little win streak here at home. Follow me on Twitter @EricLilly7 , I may have some analysis on the trend that I mentioned above.


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