Sunday, April 10, 2011

4/11 Reds @ Padres

Tough loss today for the Reds, let's try not to dwell on that one for long. I still think we have an above average bullpen, but when Masset isn't pitching well it definitely seems like it is below average. I'm hoping Petco helps the pitchers turn it around, especially Volquez. This will be a shorter post because there isn't much content and I have to get some homework done!

Monday night's matchup will start at 10:05pm and the pitchers will be Volquez (1-0, 7.36) vs Mat Latos who will be making his first start of the year after coming off the DL from a shoulder injury. Latos was great last year with an 18-15 record and a 3.29 ERA.

  • Latos has only faced four Reds, and they are 0-12 with 3Ks vs him.
  • He is also 5-4 at Petco in his career with a 2.59 ERA. This will be a tough one to stop a losing streak, unless Latos shows any lingering effects from his shoulder injury.
  • Lefties bat .220 , while righties bat .214 vs him, although ERA vs righties is 3.46 compared to 2.37 vs lefties.
  • With similar innings pitched, righties have 4 more home runs (10 to 6) and a ton more walks (32 to 18) compared to lefties, which explains the ERA discrepancy.
  • Had a very slow start last year with a 6.20 ERA in April
Cordero has done well vs the Padres as they are 8-37 lifetime with 0 home runs. Jorge Cantu is the only at .300 or above, at 3-9 from the plate vs Coco.

My Pick to Click: BP
^^That bullet point won't go away, thank you blog spot for making me look like an idiot.

Volquez has done pretty well vs the two guys on SD that have 9 plate appearances vs him, Cantu and Hawpe. Combined 3-16 with 2 bb. Nothing big at all, but you can check out the other 3 guys here.
  • Volquez has done terrible vs RHB this year. In 8.1 innings he's given up 3 hr, 8 ER and 10 hits
  • This should probably pose a problem because SD has a few big righties in Ludwick (Borderline Reds killer..), Cantu (Reds killer..) and Cameron Maybin.
  • Petco park is the hardest park to hit home runs in, so Volquez may do well if the OF defense is solid. I'd really like to see Heisey Stubbs Bruce 2 games in this series.
  • SD also has a fair amount of lefties in Orlando Hudson, Will Venable, and Brad Hawpe.
  • Also worth noting that SD has had a lot of trouble hitting this year and is in the 20-30 range in all the major statistics and have a .225 average (25th).
  • Volquez has pitched at Petco twice and had solid quality starts both times in his career.
Heath Bell (Closer) has done very well vs all Reds, except Edgar Renteria. We probably won't see Renteria this series, though. I'll do a little writeup on the closer of each team at the start of each series just in case they come in for the save and we may be able to find a guy or two that does very well vs that certain closer.

My Pick to Click: Cameron Maybin

This game is really a toss-up to me, a number of things could happen. It's much harder to predict a game when a guy comes back from injury, and Latos was a stud last year for a big part of the season so he could show up like that, or when he was doing bad. I'm not sure if you all recall, but he was a Cy Young candidate for a decent amount of time last year. It's also worth noting that the Padres have a pretty good bullpen, so we don't wanna fall behind in this one.

Other stuff:

-Anyone notice Bronson has 0 walks this year?

-Reds SS have batted 18-37 (.486) this year, and this position was one of the biggest concerns this year.

-MVP Joey Votto is batting .455 (2nd), OBP .548, OPS 1.275 and has scored 12 runs (1st).

-Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto both lead the league in runs scored with 12.

-Reds are third in the new power rankings from ESPN.

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