4/27 Reds @ Brewers

The rubber match of this three game series will be played at 1:10pm today, and that was just made aware to me by my mom 5 minutes ago. So, even though I promised a long post today, that probably won't happen because I forgot to look at the schedule. We have Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 4.88) vs Sam LeCure (0-1, 4.15) for today's game. At first glance it seems like we have no shot in this game, but once you finish reading this post you should have a little more confidence!

We'll start with Gallardo today, who in his last start went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs on 8 hits vs the Astros. Surprisingly, Gallardo doesn't have a very good career vs the Reds..here are his numbers vs the current Reds. Some notables:

• Phillips, Gomes, Bruce and Stubbs all have a home run vs Gallardo.
• The only Reds' starters who bat below .300 vs Gallardo are Hanigan and Gomes.
• The team is 37-111 vs Gallardo, which is a .333 average.
• Gallardo has very interesting splits, because RHB only bat .233 vs him, while LHB bat .252, but the RHB have much more power. RHB have 31 homers to the lefty's 16, while having nearly the same amount of career hits vs him.
• LHB draw many more walks than RHB (127 to 97, over less AB)
• Gallardo has a history of bad 4th innings, where he has given up 14 home runs, which double the next highest inning.
• He's also bad in 1st and 6th innings, with a 4.66 and 5.37 ERA respectively. Every other inning is near 3.0.
• The Reds have the most career hr vs Gallardo with 6 and a career 5.26 ERA (2-3).
• 9-14 during day games (29-11 night), pretty big difference there.
• 22-13 with a 3.33 ERA at Miller Park.

Pick to Click: Stubbs

Now, onto LeCure..here are his stats vs the Brewers. His last start (4/19) he went 5.1 innings and gave up 5 runs on 9 hits (4 home runs) vs the D'Backs. Some other tidbits:

• Casey McGehee and Corey Hart each have one hit, everyone else (not including Randy Wolf) is 0-14 vs LeCure.
• Team batting average of .167, 3-18.
• Some more good news is LeCure does very good vs Righties, and as I've mentioned in the previous 2 posts the Brewers have a RHB saturated lineup normally - with 7 RHB.
• RHB bat .245 compared to LHB .274.
• K/BB ratio is much better vs RHB as well with a 2.75 compared to 1.24 vs LHB.
• 0-1 with a 3.45 ERA during day games.
• Interesting stat here, even though it doesn't relate to the game. LeCure's ERA with Hanigan is 3.29, and with Hernandez it is 5.28.

Pick to Click: Corey Hart

Feel better about the game? Obviously it's not a given, especially with LeCure's small sample size vs the Brewers, but I feel much better about this game after looking into it. It'd be huge to come back to Cincy with a win, especially considering the Marlins are 15-7 and it doesn't look like they will ever lose again...and they'll be in their natural habitat with all this rain. One more note....HALA MADRID! If you're not a soccer fan, you won't get it...no big deal. Go Reds!

@EricLilly7