Sam LeCure has one career start vs the Cardinals, here is the game log. To see the stats of current Cardinals vs LeCure, check out this link. Now, a little analysis:
- LeCure only has given up 2 hits versus current Cardinals, one to Molina and one to Pujols.
- It's worth noting that LeCure had 4 walks in that game in 5.1 innings, but that is very un-LeCure like. He has 4 walks all year, so I doubt we see that again unless he can't handle the ESPN and Sunday Night pressure at Busch Stadium.
- The Cards have a lot of RHB, and LeCure holds RHB to .245 in his career, compared to .274 vs LHB.
- His K/BB ratio is 2.75 vs RHB, and 1.24 vs LHB, that's a huge difference and shows his confidence vs RHB. He has more walks vs LHB (17 to 12) while pitching to RHB much more often (170 to 114 Plate Appearances).
Now, onto Jake Westbrook who is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA. His last start he went 3 innings and gave up 7 runs on 7 hits vs the Washington Nationals. Here are his stats vs the Reds. Onto some of the other stuff:
- Westbrook has thrown more walks than strikeouts this year. He's walked 13 while only striking out 9 in 18.1 innings. He's also given up 30 hits in 18.1 innings.
- Gomes and Rolen have homers vs Westbrook, Rolen will most likely not start again tonight.
- The team as a whole has batted 16-53 (.302), and the only batter to really struggle vs him is Bruce at a 0-3 clip.
- Splits on avg are .276/.277, so there is no advantage there for RHB or LHB. Homers, hits, doubles, etc are all nearly the exact same as well.
- One difference in the splits is K/BB ratio, where vs RHB he has a huge advantage 2.88 to 1.21 for LHB.
- He has a 4.79 ERA at Busch Stadium, but has only given up 2 home runs there in 47 IP.
- One other thing to watch out on is pay extra attention on 0-1 and 1-0 pitch counts, as Westbrook gives up most of his hits in these pitch counts. I thought it was an interesting stat so I looked up a few other pitchers to see if there was a trend, and the guys I looked up gave up most of their hits on 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 counts. He's given up 342 hits in those counts, which is 25% of the hits he's given up in his career. Pretty weird statistic considering this stat tracks every count from 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2. All of those possibilities, but 25% of his hits are from 0-1, 1-0..so I'm going to try to pay extra attention to that tonight and see what happens.
- Also worth noting that he gives up a lot of hits on the first pitch, 42% of hits given up occur in the 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 count.
I think the Reds finally take a series at Busch Stadium tonight, as Jake Westbrook has been pitching awful lately and I think LeCure or Volquez will both pitch good enough for the Reds to win. It would be a huge series win heading into Milwaukee, so let's see if we can do it!
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